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Cold email ROI calculator

Reply rates have fallen to ~3.5–5% as inboxes filter AI-written outreach. Model the funnel honestly before you spend the quarter on it.

How the math works

The funnel chains: sends × reply% × positive% × meeting% × win% × deal value. The two numbers leaders actually manage by are cost per meeting (healthy: under $300–500 for mid-market) and ROI. If ROI is negative at honest rates, more volume makes it worse, not better.

Context: dedicated AI SDR tooling now sees 50–70% first-year churn — automation amplifies your funnel math, it doesn't fix it. If the model above barely breaks even, fix targeting and offer before adding volume. And note where buyers are going instead: AI assistants recommending products directly.